India easily beat Pakistan by six wickets in the Asia Cup 2025 Super 4 match, moving very close to the finals. Pakistan scored 171/5, but they were never in control as Abhishek Sharma and Shubman Gill added 105 runs for the first wicket and destroyed their bowling attack. This big win has made things smooth for India, but tough for Pakistan.

Now, Pakistan’s chances to qualify for the final are complicated. They still have two matches left in the Super 4 stage – against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. To stay alive in the race, they must win, but even then, some situations will depend on net run-rate and other results.

Here are the potential outcomes through which Pakistan can still make it to the final despite the horror show against India. Should Pakistan win both matches, they are in the final for sure. If not, they would still be uncertain and be subject to net run-rate.

Pakistan’s chances to reach the final 

Scenario 1: Pakistan win both matches

The most possible way for Pakistan is to defeat both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. By doing so, they will have 4 points and qualify for the final without a doubt. Other results will be of no importance. 

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Scenario 2: Pakistan win one match and lose one 

If Pakistan manage to win only one out of the two matches, then they will have a maximum of 2 points at the end of the group stage. Consequently, their qualification will depend on net run-rate. If India win all of their remaining games, the contest for the two semi-final places will be between Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh.

Scenario 3: India lose both, Pakistan win both

If India are to lose their next two matches and Pakistan to win both of their matches, then Pakistan will overtake India on the points table and qualify for the final. There will be a battle for the other two places with the three remaining teams excluding Pakistan.