England or India - which team is the favorite heading into Day 5 of ENG vs IND 2025 1st Test?

India's highly anticipated 2025 tour of England gets underway in spectacular fashion at the opening Test at Headingley, Leeds. Four unmissable days of excellent cricket have seen the contest remain tantalisingly close to call: England are 21/0 requiring 350 more runs to overhaul a record 371, with India requiring 10 wickets to secure a 1-0 victory and the upper hand in the five-match series.

So, who has the advantage going into Day 5? Let's analyze it.

The Case for England: A Ground That Fosters Optimism

Leeds has traditionally been a batting paradise in fourth-innings run-chases, as opposed to the majority of Test grounds. The average fourth innings total at Headingley is an astonishing 52.29 per wicket, much higher than the previous innings. That implies batting conditions usually get better with time, an uncommon trend in Test cricket.

Aiding that, five of the greatest 40 run-chases in Test history have been achieved at this venue, including England's breathtaking chase of 359 off Australia in 2019. Under Ben Stokes and the Bazball era, England have redefined the fourth innings target rulebook, regularly opting to chase regardless of the target size.

They've chased 250+ totals home five times now under Stokes, and two of those were achieved at Leeds. Crucially, they won their biggest-ever chase (378) vs. India only two years ago at Edgbaston. A deep batting order and recent form in such situations will never rattle England.

Edge: England (venue & Bazball experience)

The Case for India: Momentum, Skill, and Bumrah

India's second-innings batting, fueled by Jaiswal, Gill, Rahul, and Pant's centuries, has placed them with a huge lead of 370, a towering fourth-innings target in any situation. But India's true X-factor is Jasprit Bumrah. The Indian paceman produced figures of 5/83 in the first innings and appears to be the only genuine threat with the ball. His capability to strike early and reverse the ball in these conditions makes him India's largest asset to go into Day 5.

Ravindra Jadeja could be a factor with some stiffness outside the left-handers' off stump, and if the ball grips or remains low, India's prospects will increase dramatically. England's run chase relies on getting through Bumrah's spells, but Indian bowling has seemed unduly reliant on him. England could succumb quickly if India can put the pressure early on and achieve the breakthroughs with the new ball.

Edge: India enjoys the edge (in terms of bowling strength and scoreboard pressure).

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How Does the Weather Influence It?

The narrative can take a massive turn from here. With Day 5 having an 84% probability of rain, the weather prognosis is anything but bright, especially in the mornings. The forecast is for isolated showers throughout the day, which might be expensive for both sides in terms of lost time. A draw becomes a distinct possibility if the day is badly interrupted by rain. But one side could be able to get on top in as little as a couple of full sessions.

Edge: Rain (the greatest danger of a result)

Verdict: Slight Advantage India – But Only Just

Although the conditions, venue record, and England's chase record indicate they're comfortably within sight, the magnitude of the target, 371, the largest ever at Headingley, tips the balance in favor of India. Throw in the early intimidation of a Day 5 new ball, the threat of Bumrah, and impending weather interruptions, and India seems just ahead. As former England fast bowler Stuart Broad said, "India just needs to generate 10 chances. On Day 5 of a pitch, they must be favourites."

Favourite on the eve of Day 5: India (narrowly)

But with Bazball, Bumrah, and poor weather all in the equation, Day 5 will be edge-of-the-seat Test cricket of the highest order if the rain holds off.