Explained: Afghanistan qualification scenario for Super 8 after two straight losses in T20 World Cup 2026

Afghanistan, led by Rashid Khan, are in danger of getting knocked out of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 at the group stage. The team, which reached the semi-finals in 2024, faced a tough loss against South Africa in their second Group D game. They failed to score 24 runs in the second Super Over of Match 13 at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad.

This loss on Wednesday (February 11) was their second in the tournament. Earlier, they were beaten by New Zealand by five wickets in Chennai on February 8.

Afghanistan are currently third in the Group D table. However, with two losses in two matches, their chances of reaching the Super 8 round are now very low.

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Afghanistan’s Qualification Chances

For Afghanistan to finish in the top two, they must win their remaining Group D matches against the United Arab Emirates (February 16) and Canada (February 19) by big margins. They also need either New Zealand or South Africa to lose both of their remaining matches.

If this happens, Afghanistan will end with four points from four matches. In that case, either New Zealand or South Africa will also finish with four points. Then the second team from Group D will be decided by Net Run Rate (NRR). This is where Afghanistan can still have a small chance.

Rain Could End Their Hopes

However, there is another situation that can end Afghanistan’s campaign. If the match between New Zealand and South Africa on February 14 in Ahmedabad is washed out due to rain, both teams will get one point each.

If that happens, New Zealand and South Africa will have five points each. Afghanistan cannot reach five points even if they win their remaining matches. In that case, they will be knocked out of the tournament.