SA vs AUS Match Prediction — Who Will Win 1st ODI? South Africa vs Australia
In this SA vs AUS match prediction, we analyse recent form, pitch report, weather conditions, head-to-head record, key players, and match scenarios to find out who will win SA vs AUS today in the 1st ODI of the Australia tour of South Africa 2026

South Africa will play against Australia in the first match of Australia's 2026 tour of South Africa on September 24th at Kingsmead, Durban. Both teams are coming off strong series; Australia recently won 3-0 against Zimbabwe, while South Africa defeated Namibia 3-0 in their latest ODI series. They will enter this game with confidence, aiming to keep their winning streak alive.
The previous ODI series between these teams was in 2023 and featured a notable comeback by South Africa. Despite Australia leading 2-0, South Africa won the next three matches, securing the series 3-2.
Read Also: SA vs AUS Dream11 Prediction — 1st ODI Best Team, Captain & Vice-Captain Picks
SA vs AUS Match Details – 1st ODI
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Match: South Africa vs Australia, 1st ODI
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Date: 24th September, 2026
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Time: 1:30 PM IST
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Venue: Kingsmead, Durban
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Live Streaming: Fancode
SA vs AUS Pitch Report - Kingsmead
Kingsmead traditionally provided support to seam bowlers early, with swing and seam movement in the morning due to coastal moisture. Batting becomes easier once the ball loses shine, rewarding patient stroke play.
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Win Batting First: 40%
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Win Bowling First: 60%
Average Scores
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Average 1st Innings: 300
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Average 2nd Innings: 240
SA vs AUS Weather Report – Durban Conditions
|
Temperature |
20.8°C |
|
Rain Possibility |
15% |
|
Average Score |
300 |
|
Best Suited For |
Batting |
SA vs AUS Recent Form
|
Team |
Last 5 Matches |
|
SA |
W, W, W, L, W |
|
AUS |
W, W, W, W, L |
SA vs AUS Head-to-Head Record (Last 10 ODIs)
|
Team |
Wins |
|
South Africa |
6 |
|
Australia |
4 |
|
NR |
0 |
SA vs AUS Injury News & Team Updates – 1st ODI
SA: All players are fit and available for the match
AUS: Mitchell Starc are available for this series
SA vs AUS Win Probability – 1st ODI
|
Team |
Win Probability |
|
South Africa |
48% |
|
Australia |
52% |
SA vs AUS Key Player Battles to Watch
|
Player |
Team |
ODI Stats |
|
SA |
7123 runs |
|
|
David Miller |
SA |
4611 runs |
|
Mitchell Marsh |
AUS |
3195 runs |
|
Mitchell Starc |
AUS |
247 wickets |
|
Josh Hazlewood |
AUS |
144 wickets |
|
Pat Cummins |
AUS |
143 wickets |
SA vs AUS Match Prediction Scenarios
Scenario 1: If SA Bat First
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Powerplay Score: 35–40
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Predicted Total: 250-275
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Match Result: AUS to win
Scenario 2: If AUS Bat First
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Powerplay Score: 40–50
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Predicted Total: 275–300
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Match Result: AUS to win
SA vs AUS Toss Prediction – 1st ODI
The last three out of five ODI matches have been won by the chasing team, so the toss-winning captain most likely chose to bowl first in this match.
Prediction: AUS to win the toss and elect to bowl first
SA vs AUS Probable Playing
South Africa (SA)
Quinton de Kock (WK), Ryan Rickelton, Temba Bavuma (C), Aiden Markram, Matthew Breetzke, Tristan Stubbs/David Miller, Marco Jansen, Corbin Bosch, Keshav Maharaj, Gerald Coetzee, Kwena Maphaka.
Australia (AUS)
Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh (C), Josh Inglis, Cooper Connolly, Matt Renshaw, Cameron Green/Jack Edwards, Alex Carey (WK), Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa, Nathan Ellis, Josh Hazlewood
SA vs AUS 1st ODI Player of the Match Prediction
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Mitchell Marsh
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Cooper Connolly
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Aiden Markram
Who Will Win SA vs AUS Today? — Expert Prediction 1st ODI
According to our SA vs AUS who will win today, Australia are the favourites to win the 1st ODI expert predictions. The likes of Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh and Mitchell Starc will be key players to watch out for.
SA vs AUS, who will win today: Australia to win
SA vs AUS Match Result – 1st ODI Results
(To be updated after the match - September 24, 2026)
Frequently Asked Questions
Australia are favourites and are predicted to beat South Africa.
Australia are predicted to win the toss and opt to bowl first.
Kingsmead traditionally provided support to seam bowlers early, with swing and seam movement in the morning due to coastal moisture. Batting becomes easier once the ball loses shine, rewarding patient stroke play.
Cooper Connolly, Aiden Markram and Mitchell Marsh are the key players to watch.
Australia has a 52% win probability, while Zimbabwe has a 48% chance.
Match Tips
- High Scoring Match 190+
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