Asia Cup 2025: How can Afghanistan still qualify for Super Four?

Group B of the Asia Cup 2025 is hanging in the balance as Afghanistan prepares for a must-win encounter against Sri Lanka on Thursday, September 18, in Abu Dhabi. Having started their campaign with a commanding victory over Hong Kong, Afghanistan looked in control, but a narrow defeat to Bangladesh has left their future uncertain. This final group-stage clash will not only decide Afghanistan’s fate but also play a decisive role in Bangladesh’s qualification hopes.

Afghanistan delivered a clinical performance in their first match against Hong Kong and won the game by 94 runs; with that win, they secured two valuable points and had boosted their net run rate (NRR) to +2.150. Afghanistan then suffered an early setback in their second match against Bangladesh. Chasing 155, Afghanistan showed glimpses of brilliance, with Azmatullah Omarzai’s 30 providing hope, but Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed’s sharp death bowling restricted them to 146, resulting in an eight-run defeat.

With that loss, Afghanistan sits on two points from two matches, making the final clash against Sri Lanka a do-or-die battle. Meanwhile, Bangladesh has completed all three of its group fixtures, winning two and losing one. Hong Kong, on the other hand, is already eliminated, leaving the fight for two Super Four spots between Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh.

Possible Scenarios for Afghanistan Qualification

If Sri Lanka wins against Afghanistan, they will finish on six points and top the group, while Bangladesh will qualify second with four points despite their weaker NRR. This outcome would end Afghanistan’s campaign with just two points. However, if Afghanistan wins, a three-way tie at four points will emerge, and net run rate will determine the qualifiers.

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Afghanistan, already possessing the best NRR, would qualify with any margin of victory. Sri Lanka’s superior NRR still keeps them in contention unless they suffer a heavy defeat. For Bangladesh, the only route to qualification lies in Afghanistan beating Sri Lanka by a huge margin, such as a 70+ run win or a chase with 50+ balls to spare, so that Sri Lanka’s NRR drops below –0.270.